League One title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 7 September 2026
Oxford Utd lead the title race at 45%. Leicester 0–4 Oxford Utd moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Oxford Utd20%45%+25 pts
Stockport8%13%+5 pts
Reading2%4%+2 pts
Down
Leicester27%6%−21 pts
Huddersfield16%8%−8 pts
Luton4%2%−2 pts
Oxford Utd won 4–0 at Leicester, and their title chances rose from 20% to 45%. Leicester lost 4–0 to Oxford Utd at home, and their title chances fell from 27% to 6%. Oxford Utd lead the title race at 45%.
Promotion
Up
- Oxford Utd36%67%+31 pts
- Stockport17%30%+13 pts
- Reading7%11%+4 pts
Down
- Leicester47%14%−33 pts
- Huddersfield33%21%−12 pts
- Luton9%5%−4 pts
Oxford Utd won 4–0 at Leicester, and their promotion chances rose from 36% to 67%. Leicester lost 4–0 to Oxford Utd at home, and their promotion chances fell from 47% to 14%.
Relegation
Wigan lost 4–0 to Stockport at home, and their relegation chances rose from 32% to 53%. Wimbledon won 2–0 at Bromley, and their relegation chances fell from 49% to 31%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Leicester 0–4 Oxford Utd moved the odds the most. Leicester lost 4–0 to Oxford Utd at home, and their promotion chances fell from 47% to 14%. Oxford Utd won 4–0 at Leicester, and their promotion chances rose from 36% to 67%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Oxford Utd
- Sheffield Wed
- Stockport
- Huddersfield
- Leicester
Show as a table
| Round | Oxford Utd | Sheffield Wed | Stockport | Huddersfield | Leicester |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 40% |
| 2 | 36% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 22% |
| 3 | 33% | 10% | 16% | 9% | 16% |
| 4 | 20% | 16% | 8% | 16% | 27% |
| 5 | 45% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 6% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sheffield WedSheffield Wednesday | 12 | 17%+1 pt | 36%+3 pts | <1%±0 |
| 2 | HuddersfieldHuddersfield Town | 11 | 8%−8 pts | 21%−12 pts | <1%±0 |
| 3 | StockportStockport County | 9 | 13%+5 pts | 30%+13 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  BradfordBradford City | 9 | 1%±0 | 4%+1 pt | 1%−1 pt |
| 5 |  Burton AlbionBurton Albion | 8 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−1 pt | 3%+1 pt |
| 6 |  CambridgeCambridge United | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 29%−3 pts |
| 7 | LutonLuton Town | 8 | 2%−2 pts | 5%−4 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 8 | ReadingReading | 7 | 4%+2 pts | 11%+4 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 9 |  Leyton OrientLeyton Orient | 7 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−1 pt | 3%−1 pt |
| 10 | Oxford UtdOxford United | 7 | 45%+25 pts | 67%+31 pts | 0%±0 |
| 11 |  BlackpoolBlackpool | 7 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−2 pts | 3%+1 pt |
| 12 |  Notts CountyNotts County | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 38%−5 pts |
| 13 |  PlymouthPlymouth Argyle | 7 | 2%+1 pt | 5%+2 pts | 1%−1 pt |
| 14 |  BarnsleyBarnsley | 7 | <1%−1 pt | <1%−2 pts | 11%+8 pts |
| 15 |  WimbledonAFC Wimbledon | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 31%−18 pts |
| 16 |  StevenageStevenage | 6 | 1%+1 pt | 3%+3 pts | 1%−7 pts |
| 17 |  MansfieldMansfield Town | 6 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−2 pts | 2%±0 |
| 18 | LeicesterLeicester City | 5 | 6%−21 pts | 14%−33 pts | <1%±0 |
| 19 |  MK DonsMK Dons | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 51%−10 pts |
| 20 |  PeterboroughPeterborough United | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 25%+3 pts |
| 21 |  BromleyBromley | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 98%+4 pts |
| 22 |  DoncasterDoncaster Rovers | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 40%+6 pts |
| 23 |  WycombeWycombe Wanderers | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 8%±0 |
| 24 |  WiganWigan Athletic | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 53%+21 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.