La Liga title odds after Matchday 10

After the games up to 26 October 2026

Barcelona lead the title race at 81%. Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid moved the odds the most.

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Real Madrid5%17%+12 pts
Atlético1%3%+2 pts

Down

Barcelona93%81%−12 pts

Real Madrid won 2–1 at Barcelona, and their title chances rose from 5% to 17%. Barcelona lost 2–1 to Real Madrid at home, and their title chances fell from 93% to 81%. Barcelona lead the title race at 81%.

Champions League

Real Sociedad15%18%+3 pts
Villarreal10%13%+3 pts
Sevilla5%8%+3 pts

Down

Betis63%56%−7 pts
Celta Vigo4%2%−2 pts
Rayo2%<1%−2 pts

Real Sociedad beat Levante 2–1 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 15% to 18%. Betis drew 0–0 at Celta Vigo, and their Champions League chances fell from 63% to 56%.

Relegation

Getafe21%39%+18 pts
Osasuna14%20%+6 pts
Valencia37%42%+5 pts

Down

Racing67%52%−15 pts
Elche11%2%−9 pts
Málaga92%87%−5 pts

Getafe lost 4–0 at Athletic, and their relegation chances rose from 21% to 39%. Racing beat Espanyol 2–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 67% to 52%.

Changes since Matchday 9, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Barcelona

1–2

Real Madrid

Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid moved the odds the most. Barcelona lost 2–1 to Real Madrid at home, and their title chances fell from 93% to 81%. Real Madrid won 2–1 at Barcelona, and their title chances rose from 5% to 17%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atlético
Betis
Real Sociedad

Show as a table

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	Champions LeagueChampions League	RelegationRelegation
1	BarcelonaBarcelona	27	81%−12 pts	>99%±0	0%±0
2	AtléticoAtlético Madrid	25	3%+2 pts	96%±0	0%±0
3	Real MadridReal Madrid	24	17%+12 pts	>99%+1 pt	0%±0
4	BetisReal Betis	20	<1%±0	56%−7 pts	0%±0
5	Real SociedadReal Sociedad	19	0%±0	18%+3 pts	<1%±0
6	SevillaSevilla	17	0%±0	8%+3 pts	<1%−1 pt
7	AlavésAlavés	12	0%±0	1%−1 pt	4%+1 pt
8	AthleticAthletic Club	12	0%±0	4%+1 pt	1%−2 pts
9	Celta VigoCelta Vigo	12	0%±0	2%−2 pts	1%±0
10	VillarrealVillarreal	12	0%±0	13%+3 pts	<1%±0
11	OsasunaOsasuna	11	0%±0	<1%±0	20%+6 pts
12	DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña	11	0%±0	<1%±0	22%−3 pts
13	RacingRacing Santander	11	0%±0	0%±0	52%−15 pts
14	LevanteLevante	10	0%±0	<1%±0	6%−5 pts
15	ElcheElche	10	0%±0	1%+1 pt	2%−9 pts
16	RayoRayo Vallecano	9	0%±0	<1%−2 pts	9%+5 pts
17	GetafeGetafe	9	0%±0	0%±0	39%+18 pts
18	EspanyolEspanyol	8	0%±0	<1%±0	15%+4 pts
19	ValenciaValencia	6	0%±0	0%±0	42%+5 pts
20	MálagaMálaga	5	0%±0	0%±0	87%−5 pts

Chances after Matchday 10, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 9 below each.

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Champions League

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%