La Liga title odds after Matchday 6
After the games up to 17 September 2026
Barcelona lead the title race at 85%. Alavés 0–1 Valencia moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Real Madrid13%14%+1 pt
Atlético<1%1%+1 pt
Down
Barcelona87%85%−2 pts
Real Madrid won 3–2 at Elche, and their title chances rose from 13% to 14%. Barcelona beat Racing 7–2 at home, and their title chances fell from 87% to 85%. Barcelona lead the title race at 85%.
Champions League
Atlético beat Osasuna 4–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 69% to 81%. Alavés lost 1–0 to Valencia at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 20% to 7%.
Changes since Matchday 5, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Alavés 0–1 Valencia moved the odds the most. Alavés lost 1–0 to Valencia at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 20% to 7%. Valencia won 1–0 at Alavés, and their relegation chances fell from 54% to 33%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Atlético
- Betis
- Sevilla
Show as a table
| Round | Barcelona | Real Madrid | Atlético | Betis | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 27% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 2 | 76% | 20% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 72% | 26% | 1% | <1% | 0% |
| 4 | 89% | 10% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| 5 | 87% | 13% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| 6 | 85% | 14% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BarcelonaBarcelona | 18 | 85%−2 pts | 100%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  BetisReal Betis | 15 | <1%±0 | 66%+5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | Real MadridReal Madrid | 15 | 14%+1 pt | 99%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 4 | AtléticoAtlético Madrid | 13 | 1%+1 pt | 81%+12 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  SevillaSevilla | 13 | <1%±0 | 14%+4 pts | <1%−2 pts |
| 6 |  AlavésAlavés | 10 | <1%±0 | 7%−13 pts | 1%±0 |
| 7 |  DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña | 9 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 25%+6 pts |
| 8 |  RayoRayo Vallecano | 7 | 0%±0 | 3%±0 | 4%−4 pts |
| 9 |  Real SociedadReal Sociedad | 7 | 0%±0 | 3%±0 | 4%−1 pt |
| 10 |  EspanyolEspanyol | 7 | 0%±0 | 4%−5 pts | 3%+1 pt |
| 11 |  AthleticAthletic Club | 7 | 0%±0 | 4%−2 pts | 3%±0 |
| 12 |  RacingRacing Santander | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 42%+3 pts |
| 13 |  OsasunaOsasuna | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%−2 pts | 18%+9 pts |
| 14 |  VillarrealVillarreal | 5 | 0%±0 | 15%+2 pts | 1%−1 pt |
| 15 |  LevanteLevante | 5 | 0%±0 | 2%±0 | 8%−1 pt |
| 16 |  GetafeGetafe | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 28%+6 pts |
| 17 |  Celta VigoCelta Vigo | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 13%−1 pt |
| 18 |  ValenciaValencia | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 33%−21 pts |
| 19 |  MálagaMálaga | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 85%+5 pts |
| 20 |  ElcheElche | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 31%−1 pt |
Chances after Matchday 6, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 5 below each.