La Liga title odds after Matchday 8
After the games up to 12 October 2026
Barcelona lead the title race at 92%. Betis 5–2 Osasuna moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
–
Down
Real Madrid7%6%−1 pt
Real Madrid beat Villarreal 1–0 at home, and their title chances fell from 7% to 6%. Barcelona lead the title race at 92%.
Champions League
Up
Betis61%71%+10 pts
Atlético88%92%+4 pts- Real Madrid98%99%+1 pt
Down
Villarreal19%14%−5 pts
Alavés7%3%−4 pts
Sevilla9%7%−2 pts
Betis beat Osasuna 5–2 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 61% to 71%. Villarreal lost 1–0 at Real Madrid, and their Champions League chances fell from 19% to 14%.
Changes since Matchday 7, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Betis 5–2 Osasuna moved the odds the most. Betis beat Osasuna 5–2 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 61% to 71%. Osasuna lost 5–2 at Betis, and their relegation chances rose from 17% to 24%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Atlético
- Betis
- Sevilla
Show as a table
| Round | Barcelona | Real Madrid | Atlético | Betis | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 27% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 2 | 76% | 20% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 72% | 26% | 1% | <1% | 0% |
| 4 | 89% | 10% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| 5 | 87% | 13% | <1% | <1% | 0% |
| 6 | 85% | 14% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 92% | 7% | 1% | <1% | 0% |
| 8 | 92% | 6% | 1% | <1% | 0% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BarcelonaBarcelona | 24 | 92%±0 | 100%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 2 | AtléticoAtlético Madrid | 19 | 1%±0 | 92%+4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | BetisReal Betis | 19 | <1%±0 | 71%+10 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 | Real MadridReal Madrid | 18 | 6%−1 pt | 99%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 5 | SevillaSevilla | 14 | 0%±0 | 7%−2 pts | 1%±0 |
| 6 |  Real SociedadReal Sociedad | 13 | 0%±0 | 6%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 7 | AlavésAlavés | 11 | 0%±0 | 3%−4 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 8 |  DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña | 10 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 24%±0 |
| 9 |  RayoRayo Vallecano | 8 | 0%±0 | 2%−1 pt | 4%−1 pt |
| 10 |  OsasunaOsasuna | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 24%+7 pts |
| 11 |  Celta VigoCelta Vigo | 8 | 0%±0 | 2%−1 pt | 3%±0 |
| 12 |  GetafeGetafe | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 22%+3 pts |
| 13 |  AthleticAthletic Club | 8 | 0%±0 | 3%−1 pt | 2%−1 pt |
| 14 |  EspanyolEspanyol | 8 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 9%±0 |
| 15 | VillarrealVillarreal | 8 | 0%±0 | 14%−5 pts | <1%±0 |
| 16 |  RacingRacing Santander | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 59%−1 pt |
| 17 |  LevanteLevante | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 11%−1 pt |
| 18 |  ElcheElche | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 14%−1 pt |
| 19 |  ValenciaValencia | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 36%−5 pts |
| 20 |  MálagaMálaga | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 87%−2 pts |
Chances after Matchday 8, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 7 below each.