La Liga title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 7 September 2026
Barcelona lead the title race at 89%. Villarreal 2–3 Deportivo moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Barcelona72%89%+17 pts
Down
Real Madrid26%10%−16 pts
Atlético1%<1%−1 pt
Barcelona won 5–0 at Valencia, and their title chances rose from 72% to 89%. Real Madrid lost 1–0 at Betis, and their title chances fell from 26% to 10%. Barcelona lead the title race at 89%.
Champions League
Down
- Atlético66%44%−22 pts
Villarreal44%25%−19 pts
Osasuna15%7%−8 pts
Alavés beat Osasuna 5–2 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 19% to 39%. Atlético lost 3–0 at Athletic, and their Champions League chances fell from 66% to 44%.
Relegation
Valencia lost 5–0 to Barcelona at home, and their relegation chances rose from 27% to 48%. Deportivo won 3–2 at Villarreal, and their relegation chances fell from 44% to 20%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Villarreal 2–3 Deportivo moved the odds the most. Villarreal lost 3–2 to Deportivo at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 44% to 25%. Deportivo won 3–2 at Villarreal, and their relegation chances fell from 44% to 20%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Betis
- Alavés
- Atlético
Show as a table
| Round | Barcelona | Real Madrid | Betis | Alavés | Atlético |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 27% | 1% | <1% | 5% |
| 2 | 76% | 20% | 1% | <1% | 1% |
| 3 | 72% | 26% | <1% | <1% | 1% |
| 4 | 89% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BarcelonaBarcelona | 12 | 89%+17 pts | 100%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  AlavésAlavés | 10 | <1%±0 | 39%+20 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 3 |  BetisReal Betis | 9 | <1%±0 | 45%+18 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 | Real MadridReal Madrid | 9 | 10%−16 pts | 97%−1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña | 8 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 20%−24 pts |
| 6 | AtléticoAtlético Madrid | 7 | <1%−1 pt | 44%−22 pts | <1%±0 |
| 7 |  SevillaSevilla | 7 | 0%±0 | 8%+2 pts | 3%±0 |
| 8 | OsasunaOsasuna | 7 | 0%±0 | 7%−8 pts | 3%+2 pts |
| 9 |  Real SociedadReal Sociedad | 7 | <1%±0 | 11%+4 pts | 2%−1 pt |
| 10 |  AthleticAthletic Club | 6 | 0%±0 | 8%+6 pts | 3%−8 pts |
| 11 |  LevanteLevante | 5 | 0%±0 | 4%±0 | 8%+2 pts |
| 12 |  RayoRayo Vallecano | 4 | 0%±0 | 5%+2 pts | 5%−4 pts |
| 13 |  GetafeGetafe | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 18%±0 |
| 14 |  EspanyolEspanyol | 4 | 0%±0 | 4%±0 | 7%+1 pt |
| 15 |  RacingRacing Santander | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 57%+2 pts |
| 16 |  Celta VigoCelta Vigo | 3 | 0%±0 | 2%±0 | 9%−1 pt |
| 17 | VillarrealVillarreal | 2 | <1%±0 | 25%−19 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 18 |  MálagaMálaga | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 84%+3 pts |
| 19 |  ElcheElche | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 32%+8 pts |
| 20 |  ValenciaValencia | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 48%+21 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.