La Liga title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 14 September 2026
Barcelona lead the title race at 87%. Racing 2–1 Alavés moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Real Madrid10%13%+3 pts
Down
Barcelona89%87%−2 pts
Real Madrid beat Rayo 4–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 10% to 13%. Barcelona won 4–2 at Levante, and their title chances fell from 89% to 87%. Barcelona lead the title race at 87%.
Champions League
Down
Alavés39%20%−19 pts
Villarreal25%13%−12 pts
Real Sociedad11%3%−8 pts
Atlético won 3–0 at Real Sociedad, and their Champions League chances rose from 44% to 69%. Alavés lost 2–1 at Racing, and their Champions League chances fell from 39% to 20%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Racing 2–1 Alavés moved the odds the most. Racing beat Alavés 2–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 57% to 39%. Alavés lost 2–1 at Racing, and their Champions League chances fell from 39% to 20%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Atlético
- Betis
- Alavés
Show as a table
| Round | Barcelona | Real Madrid | Atlético | Betis | Alavés |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 27% | 5% | 1% | <1% |
| 2 | 76% | 20% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 72% | 26% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 89% | 10% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 87% | 13% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BarcelonaBarcelona | 15 | 87%−2 pts | >99%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  BetisReal Betis | 12 | <1%±0 | 61%+16 pts | <1%±0 |
| 3 | Real MadridReal Madrid | 12 | 13%+3 pts | 99%+2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  AtléticoAtlético Madrid | 10 | <1%±0 | 69%+25 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 | AlavésAlavés | 10 | <1%±0 | 20%−19 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 6 |  SevillaSevilla | 10 | 0%±0 | 10%+2 pts | 2%−1 pt |
| 7 |  DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña | 9 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 19%−1 pt |
| 8 | Real SociedadReal Sociedad | 7 | 0%±0 | 3%−8 pts | 5%+3 pts |
| 9 |  EspanyolEspanyol | 7 | 0%±0 | 9%+5 pts | 2%−5 pts |
| 10 |  AthleticAthletic Club | 7 | <1%±0 | 6%−2 pts | 3%±0 |
| 11 |  RacingRacing Santander | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 39%−18 pts |
| 12 |  OsasunaOsasuna | 7 | 0%±0 | 2%−5 pts | 9%+6 pts |
| 13 |  LevanteLevante | 5 | 0%±0 | 2%−2 pts | 9%+1 pt |
| 14 |  GetafeGetafe | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 22%+4 pts |
| 15 |  Celta VigoCelta Vigo | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 14%+5 pts |
| 16 |  RayoRayo Vallecano | 4 | 0%±0 | 3%−2 pts | 8%+3 pts |
| 17 |  MálagaMálaga | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 80%−4 pts |
| 18 | VillarrealVillarreal | 2 | <1%±0 | 13%−12 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 19 |  ElcheElche | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 32%±0 |
| 20 |  ValenciaValencia | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 54%+6 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.