La Liga title odds after Matchday 1
After the games up to 19 August 2026
Barcelona lead the title race at 60%.
Biggest risers and fallers
This is the season's first report: the changes start with the next round.
The title race
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Atlético
- Villarreal
- Betis
Show as a table
| Round | Barcelona | Real Madrid | Atlético | Villarreal | Betis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 27% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AlavésAlavés | 3 | <1% | 11% | 2% |
| 2 |  EspanyolEspanyol | 3 | <1% | 9% | 3% |
| 3 |  AtléticoAtlético Madrid | 3 | 5% | 55% | <1% |
| 4 |  SevillaSevilla | 3 | <1% | 5% | 6% |
| 5 |  RacingRacing Santander | 1 | 0% | <1% | 63% |
| 6 |  VillarrealVillarreal | 1 | 4% | 52% | <1% |
| 7 |  DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña | 1 | 0% | <1% | 66% |
| 8 |  ElcheElche | 1 | <1% | 4% | 6% |
| 9 |  AthleticAthletic Club | 0 | <1% | 2% | 13% |
| 10 |  BarcelonaBarcelona | 0 | 60% | 97% | 0% |
| 11 |  Celta VigoCelta Vigo | 0 | 1% | 19% | 1% |
| 12 |  OsasunaOsasuna | 0 | <1% | 6% | 5% |
| 13 |  BetisReal Betis | 0 | 1% | 29% | <1% |
| 14 |  Real MadridReal Madrid | 0 | 27% | 89% | 0% |
| 15 |  Real SociedadReal Sociedad | 0 | <1% | 11% | 3% |
| 16 |  ValenciaValencia | 0 | <1% | 4% | 7% |
| 17 |  RayoRayo Vallecano | 0 | <1% | 5% | 7% |
| 18 |  MálagaMálaga | 0 | 0% | <1% | 73% |
| 19 |  GetafeGetafe | 0 | 0% | 1% | 20% |
| 20 |  LevanteLevante | 0 | 0% | 1% | 24% |
Chances after Matchday 1, from 10,000 simulated seasons.