La Liga title odds after Matchday 3
After the games up to 31 August 2026
Barcelona lead the title race at 72%. Sevilla 1–3 Atlético moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Real Madrid20%26%+6 pts
Down
Barcelona76%72%−4 pts
Villarreal2%<1%−2 pts
Betis1%<1%−1 pt
Real Madrid's title chances rose from 20% to 26%. Barcelona's title chances fell from 76% to 72%. Barcelona lead the title race at 72%.
Champions League
Down
Celta Vigo16%2%−14 pts- Betis39%27%−12 pts
Sevilla14%6%−8 pts
Atlético won 3–1 at Sevilla, and their Champions League chances rose from 48% to 66%. Celta Vigo's Champions League chances fell from 16% to 2%.
Changes since Matchday 2, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Sevilla 1–3 Atlético moved the odds the most. Sevilla lost 3–1 to Atlético at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 14% to 6%. Atlético won 3–1 at Sevilla, and their Champions League chances rose from 48% to 66%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Barcelona
- Real Madrid
- Atlético
- Villarreal
- Betis
Show as a table
| Round | Barcelona | Real Madrid | Atlético | Villarreal | Betis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 60% | 27% | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| 2 | 76% | 20% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 3 | 72% | 26% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BarcelonaBarcelona | 9 | 72%−4 pts | >99%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 2 | Real MadridReal Madrid | 9 | 26%+6 pts | 98%+5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  AtléticoAtlético Madrid | 7 | 1%±0 | 66%+18 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  AlavésAlavés | 7 | <1%±0 | 19%+7 pts | 1%−1 pt |
| 5 |  OsasunaOsasuna | 7 | <1%±0 | 15%+10 pts | 1%−4 pts |
| 6 | SevillaSevilla | 6 | 0%±0 | 6%−8 pts | 3%+2 pts |
| 7 | BetisReal Betis | 6 | <1%−1 pt | 27%−12 pts | <1%±0 |
| 8 |  DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 44%−16 pts |
| 9 |  LevanteLevante | 4 | <1%±0 | 4%+3 pts | 6%−16 pts |
| 10 |  RacingRacing Santander | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 55%−10 pts |
| 11 |  Real SociedadReal Sociedad | 3 | <1%±0 | 7%±0 | 3%−1 pt |
| 12 |  EspanyolEspanyol | 3 | <1%±0 | 4%−2 pts | 6%+3 pts |
| 13 |  AthleticAthletic Club | 3 | 0%±0 | 2%+1 pt | 11%−13 pts |
| 14 |  GetafeGetafe | 3 | 0%±0 | 1%−1 pt | 18%+7 pts |
| 15 | VillarrealVillarreal | 2 | <1%−2 pts | 44%−6 pts | <1%±0 |
| 16 | Celta VigoCelta Vigo | 1 | 0%±0 | 2%−14 pts | 10%+9 pts |
| 17 |  ValenciaValencia | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%−4 pts | 27%+21 pts |
| 18 |  RayoRayo Vallecano | 1 | 0%±0 | 3%±0 | 9%+2 pts |
| 19 |  ElcheElche | 1 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 24%+6 pts |
| 20 |  MálagaMálaga | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 81%+9 pts |
Chances after Matchday 3, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 2 below each.