La Liga title odds after Matchday 11

After the games up to 2 November 2026Latest

Barcelona lead the title race at 81%. Getafe 3–1 Sevilla moved the odds the most.

Simulate the rest of the season

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

–

Down

Real Madrid17%16%−1 pt

Real Madrid won 3–0 at Racing, and their title chances fell from 17% to 16%. Barcelona lead the title race at 81%.

Champions League

Betis56%63%+7 pts
Atlético96%99%+3 pts
Athletic4%7%+3 pts

Down

Villarreal13%7%−6 pts
Real Sociedad18%15%−3 pts
Sevilla8%5%−3 pts

Betis beat Málaga 2–1 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 56% to 63%. Villarreal lost 1–0 to Espanyol at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 13% to 7%.

Relegation

Osasuna20%32%+12 pts
Racing52%63%+11 pts
Levante6%11%+5 pts

Down

Getafe39%24%−15 pts
Valencia42%30%−12 pts
Espanyol15%8%−7 pts

Osasuna lost 2–1 at Deportivo, and their relegation chances rose from 20% to 32%. Getafe beat Sevilla 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 39% to 24%.

Changes since Matchday 10, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Getafe

3–1

Sevilla

Getafe 3–1 Sevilla moved the odds the most. Getafe beat Sevilla 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 39% to 24%. Sevilla lost 3–1 at Getafe, and their Champions League chances fell from 8% to 5%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atlético
Betis
Real Sociedad

Show as a table

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%
11	81%	16%	3%	<1%	0%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	Champions LeagueChampions League	RelegationRelegation
1	BarcelonaBarcelona	30	81%±0	100%±0	0%±0
2	AtléticoAtlético Madrid	28	3%±0	99%+3 pts	0%±0
3	Real MadridReal Madrid	27	16%−1 pt	>99%±0	0%±0
4	BetisReal Betis	23	<1%±0	63%+7 pts	0%±0
5	Real SociedadReal Sociedad	19	0%±0	15%−3 pts	<1%±0
6	SevillaSevilla	17	0%±0	5%−3 pts	1%+1 pt
7	AthleticAthletic Club	15	0%±0	7%+3 pts	1%±0
8	DeportivoDeportivo La Coruña	14	0%±0	<1%±0	17%−5 pts
9	AlavésAlavés	12	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	7%+3 pts
10	RayoRayo Vallecano	12	0%±0	1%+1 pt	4%−5 pts
11	Celta VigoCelta Vigo	12	0%±0	1%−1 pt	4%+3 pts
12	GetafeGetafe	12	0%±0	<1%±0	24%−15 pts
13	VillarrealVillarreal	12	0%±0	7%−6 pts	<1%±0
14	EspanyolEspanyol	11	0%±0	<1%±0	8%−7 pts
15	OsasunaOsasuna	11	0%±0	<1%±0	32%+12 pts
16	RacingRacing Santander	11	0%±0	0%±0	63%+11 pts
17	ElcheElche	10	0%±0	1%±0	7%+5 pts
18	LevanteLevante	10	0%±0	<1%±0	11%+5 pts
19	ValenciaValencia	9	0%±0	<1%±0	30%−12 pts
20	MálagaMálaga	5	0%±0	0%±0	91%+4 pts

Chances after Matchday 11, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 10 below each.

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%
11	81%	16%	3%	<1%	0%

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%
11	81%	16%	3%	<1%	0%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Champions League

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Barcelona	Real Madrid	Atlético	Betis	Real Sociedad
1	60%	27%	5%	1%	<1%
2	76%	20%	1%	1%	<1%
3	72%	26%	1%	<1%	<1%
4	89%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
5	87%	13%	<1%	<1%	0%
6	85%	14%	1%	<1%	0%
7	92%	7%	1%	<1%	0%
8	92%	6%	1%	<1%	0%
9	93%	5%	1%	<1%	0%
10	81%	17%	3%	<1%	0%
11	81%	16%	3%	<1%	0%