Segunda División title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 7 September 2026
Girona lead the title race at 35%. Sporting Gijón 0–2 Girona moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Down
Mallorca41%28%−13 pts
Granada5%1%−4 pts
Las Palmas6%3%−3 pts
Girona won 2–0 at Sporting Gijón, and their title chances rose from 20% to 35%. Mallorca drew 0–0 at Eldense, and their title chances fell from 41% to 28%. Girona lead the title race at 35%.
Promotion
Down
Mallorca61%50%−11 pts
Granada12%4%−8 pts
Sporting Gijón10%3%−7 pts
Girona won 2–0 at Sporting Gijón, and their promotion chances rose from 39% to 58%. Mallorca drew 0–0 at Eldense, and their promotion chances fell from 61% to 50%.
Relegation
Down
Celta Fortuna35%17%−18 pts
Valladolid45%30%−15 pts
CD Sabadell28%15%−13 pts
Ceuta lost 2–0 to Celta Fortuna at home, and their relegation chances rose from 72% to 88%. Celta Fortuna won 2–0 at Ceuta, and their relegation chances fell from 35% to 17%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Sporting Gijón 0–2 Girona moved the odds the most. Sporting Gijón lost 2–0 to Girona at home, and their promotion chances fell from 10% to 3%. Girona won 2–0 at Sporting Gijón, and their promotion chances rose from 39% to 58%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Girona
- Mallorca
- Castellón
- Eibar
- Las Palmas
Show as a table
| Round | Girona | Mallorca | Castellón | Eibar | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14% | 49% | 8% | <1% | 6% |
| 2 | 13% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 20% |
| 3 | 20% | 41% | 11% | 2% | 6% |
| 4 | 35% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 3% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 16%+5 pts | 34%+10 pts | <1%±0 | |
| 2 | 9 | 6%+4 pts | 15%+8 pts | <1%−2 pts | |
| 3 | 8 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 15%−13 pts | |
| 4 | 8 | 1%±0 | 3%±0 | 3%−1 pt | |
| 5 | 7 | 35%+15 pts | 58%+19 pts | <1%±0 | |
| 6 | 7 | 1%−4 pts | 4%−8 pts | 2%+1 pt | |
| 7 | 7 | 1%−3 pts | 3%−7 pts | 3%+2 pts | |
| 8 | 7 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 17%−18 pts | |
| 9 | 7 | 28%−13 pts | 50%−11 pts | <1%±0 | |
| 10 | 7 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 17%−2 pts | |
| 11 | 7 | 3%−3 pts | 9%−6 pts | 1%±0 | |
| 12 | 6 | 3%±0 | 8%±0 | 1%−1 pt | |
| 13 | 5 | 2%±0 | 5%−1 pt | 2%±0 | |
| 14 | 5 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 14%+4 pts | |
| 15 | 5 | 2%−2 pts | 7%−3 pts | 1%±0 | |
| 16 | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 30%−15 pts | |
| 17 | 3 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−1 pt | 10%+3 pts | |
| 18 | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 54%+3 pts | |
| 19 | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 21%+6 pts | |
| 20 | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 74%−2 pts | |
| 21 | 0 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 44%+14 pts | |
| 22 | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 88%+16 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.