Segunda División title odds after Matchday 11
After the games up to 26 October 2026
Castellón lead the title race at 48%. Castellón 4–0 Sporting Gijón moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Castellón beat Sporting Gijón 4–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 29% to 48%. Almería drew 2–2 with Real Oviedo at home, and their title chances fell from 30% to 19%. Castellón lead the title race at 48%.
Promotion
Castellón beat Sporting Gijón 4–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 53% to 70%. Eibar lost 2–0 at Córdoba, and their promotion chances fell from 24% to 12%.
Relegation
Up
Celta Fortuna26%37%+11 pts
FC Andorra10%17%+7 pts
Ceuta86%92%+6 pts
Celta Fortuna lost 5–1 at Girona, and their relegation chances rose from 26% to 37%. Cádiz beat Ceuta 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 55% to 43%.
Changes since Matchday 10, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Castellón 4–0 Sporting Gijón moved the odds the most. Castellón beat Sporting Gijón 4–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 29% to 48%. Sporting Gijón lost 4–0 at Castellón, and their promotion chances fell from 2% to <1%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Castellón
- Almería
- Girona
- Mallorca
- Eibar
Show as a table
| Round | Castellón | Almería | Girona | Mallorca | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8% | 9% | 14% | 49% | <1% |
| 2 | 9% | 8% | 13% | 32% | 1% |
| 3 | 11% | 3% | 20% | 41% | 2% |
| 4 | 16% | 3% | 35% | 28% | 6% |
| 5 | 21% | 5% | 14% | 32% | 15% |
| 6 | 35% | 4% | 13% | 31% | 11% |
| 7 | 48% | 8% | 13% | 14% | 13% |
| 8 | 32% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 24% |
| 9 | 22% | 25% | 9% | 25% | 16% |
| 10 | 29% | 30% | 10% | 18% | 11% |
| 11 | 48% | 19% | 14% | 12% | 4% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CastellónCastellón | 26 | 48%+19 pts | 70%+17 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  AlmeríaAlmería | 25 | 19%−11 pts | 43%−9 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  EibarEibar | 22 | 4%−7 pts | 12%−12 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  GironaGirona | 21 | 14%+4 pts | 35%+10 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  GranadaGranada | 20 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt | <1%−1 pt |
| 6 |  BurgosBurgos | 20 | 1%±0 | 4%+2 pts | <1%±0 |
| 7 |  MallorcaMallorca | 19 | 12%−6 pts | 30%−7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 8 |  Sporting GijónSporting Gijón | 19 | <1%±0 | <1%−2 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 9 |  Real OviedoReal Oviedo | 18 | 1%±0 | 4%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  CD SabadellCD Sabadell | 17 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%+1 pt |
| 11 |  CórdobaCórdoba | 15 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 5%−7 pts |
| 12 |  EldenseEldense | 14 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 15%+6 pts |
| 13 |  TenerifeTenerife | 14 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 15%−1 pt |
| 14 |  Las PalmasLas Palmas | 14 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%−2 pts |
| 15 |  ValladolidReal Valladolid | 12 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 15%+3 pts |
| 16 | Celta FortunaRC Celta Fortuna | 12 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 37%+11 pts |
| 17 |  LeganésLeganés | 12 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 29%−7 pts |
| 18 |  CádizCádiz | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 43%−12 pts |
| 19 | FC AndorraFC Andorra | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 17%+7 pts |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad IIReal Sociedad II | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 46%+6 pts |
| 21 | CeutaCeuta | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 92%+6 pts |
| 22 |  AlbaceteAlbacete | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 78%−11 pts |
Chances after Matchday 11, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 10 below each.