Primeira Liga title odds after Matchday 10
After the games up to 2 November 2026Latest
Porto lead the title race at 79%. Porto 4–0 Estoril moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Porto beat Estoril 4–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 74% to 79%. Benfica beat Alverca 1–0 at home, and their title chances fell from 22% to 19%. Porto lead the title race at 79%.
Champions League
Porto beat Estoril 4–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 96% to 97%. Sporting won 2–0 at Casa Pia, and their Champions League chances fell from 24% to 21%.
Relegation
Down
Casa Pia55%50%−5 pts
Moreirense3%1%−2 pts
V. Guimarães4%3%−1 pt
Estoril lost 4–0 at Porto, and their relegation chances rose from 50% to 56%. Casa Pia lost 2–0 to Sporting at home, and their relegation chances fell from 55% to 50%.
Changes since Matchday 9, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Porto 4–0 Estoril moved the odds the most. Porto beat Estoril 4–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 74% to 79%. Estoril lost 4–0 at Porto, and their relegation chances rose from 50% to 56%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Porto
- Benfica
- Sporting
- Santa Clara
- Braga
Show as a table
| Round | Porto | Benfica | Sporting | Santa Clara | Braga |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 12% | 40% | <1% | 2% |
| 2 | 47% | 25% | 26% | 0% | 1% |
| 3 | 52% | 22% | 25% | <1% | 1% |
| 4 | 56% | 14% | 29% | 0% | 1% |
| 5 | 50% | 20% | 30% | 0% | 1% |
| 6 | 47% | 34% | 18% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 71% | 19% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 | 67% | 21% | 12% | <1% | <1% |
| 9 | 74% | 22% | 4% | <1% | 0% |
| 10 | 79% | 19% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PortoPorto | 30 | 79%+5 pts | 97%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  BenficaBenfica | 25 | 19%−3 pts | 81%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  SportingSporting | 21 | 3%−1 pt | 21%−3 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 21 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  AroucaArouca | 20 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  Académico ViseuAcadémico de Viseu | 20 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 7 |  Gil VicenteGil Vicente | 15 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 8 |  BragaBraga | 14 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 9 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 1%−2 pts |
| 10 |  AlvercaAlverca | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 11 |  FamalicãoFamalicão | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 12 |  Estrela AmadoraEstrela da Amadora | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 8%+1 pt |
| 13 | V. GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães | 9 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 3%−1 pt |
| 14 |  MarítimoMarítimo | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 24%+1 pt |
| 15 |  Rio AveRio Ave | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 39%±0 |
| 16 |  NacionalNacional | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 19%+1 pt |
| 17 | Casa PiaCasa Pia | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 50%−5 pts |
| 18 |  EstorilEstoril Praia | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 56%+6 pts |
Chances after Matchday 10, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 9 below each.