Primeira Liga title odds after Matchday 9
After the games up to 26 October 2026
Porto lead the title race at 74%. Sporting 1–2 Académico Viseu moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Porto won 1–0 at Gil Vicente, and their title chances rose from 67% to 74%. Sporting lost 2–1 to Académico Viseu at home, and their title chances fell from 12% to 4%. Porto lead the title race at 74%.
Champions League
Benfica won 2–1 at Santa Clara, and their Champions League chances rose from 65% to 80%. Sporting lost 2–1 to Académico Viseu at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 43% to 24%.
Relegation
Down
Casa Pia76%55%−21 pts
Nacional33%18%−15 pts
V. Guimarães15%4%−11 pts
Rio Ave lost 4–0 to Famalicão at home, and their relegation chances rose from 20% to 39%. Casa Pia won 2–0 at Estrela Amadora, and their relegation chances fell from 76% to 55%.
Changes since Matchday 8, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Sporting 1–2 Académico Viseu moved the odds the most. Sporting lost 2–1 to Académico Viseu at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 43% to 24%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Porto
- Benfica
- Sporting
- Santa Clara
- Arouca
Show as a table
| Round | Porto | Benfica | Sporting | Santa Clara | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 12% | 40% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | 47% | 25% | 26% | 0% | <1% |
| 3 | 52% | 22% | 25% | <1% | 0% |
| 4 | 56% | 14% | 29% | 0% | <1% |
| 5 | 50% | 20% | 30% | 0% | 0% |
| 6 | 47% | 34% | 18% | <1% | 0% |
| 7 | 71% | 19% | 10% | <1% | 0% |
| 8 | 67% | 21% | 12% | <1% | 0% |
| 9 | 74% | 22% | 4% | <1% | 0% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PortoPorto | 27 | 74%+7 pts | 96%+5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  BenficaBenfica | 22 | 22%+1 pt | 80%+15 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  SportingSporting | 18 | 4%−8 pts | 24%−19 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  AroucaArouca | 17 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  Académico ViseuAcadémico de Viseu | 17 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 7 |  Gil VicenteGil Vicente | 14 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 8 |  BragaBraga | 11 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 9 |  MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 3%−5 pts |
| 10 |  AlvercaAlverca | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt |
| 11 |  FamalicãoFamalicão | 10 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 12 |  Estrela AmadoraEstrela da Amadora | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 7%+4 pts |
| 13 | V. GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 4%−11 pts |
| 14 |  MarítimoMarítimo | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 23%+13 pts |
| 15 |  Rio AveRio Ave | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 39%+19 pts |
| 16 | NacionalNacional | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 18%−15 pts |
| 17 | Casa PiaCasa Pia | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 55%−21 pts |
| 18 |  EstorilEstoril Praia | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 50%+16 pts |
Chances after Matchday 9, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 8 below each.