Primeira Liga title odds after Matchday 8
After the games up to 12 October 2026
Porto lead the title race at 67%. Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Benfica beat V. Guimarães 2–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 19% to 21%. Porto won 2–1 at Marítimo, and their title chances fell from 71% to 67%. Porto lead the title race at 67%.
Champions League
Sporting won 3–1 at Braga, and their Champions League chances rose from 41% to 43%. Porto won 2–1 at Marítimo, and their Champions League chances fell from 92% to 91%.
Changes since Matchday 7, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Rio Ave 3–2 Nacional moved the odds the most. Rio Ave beat Nacional 3–2 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 41% to 20%. Nacional lost 3–2 at Rio Ave, and their relegation chances rose from 23% to 33%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Porto
- Benfica
- Sporting
- Santa Clara
- Braga
Show as a table
| Round | Porto | Benfica | Sporting | Santa Clara | Braga |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 12% | 40% | <1% | 2% |
| 2 | 47% | 25% | 26% | 0% | 1% |
| 3 | 52% | 22% | 25% | <1% | 1% |
| 4 | 56% | 14% | 29% | 0% | 1% |
| 5 | 50% | 20% | 30% | 0% | 1% |
| 6 | 47% | 34% | 18% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 71% | 19% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
| 8 | 67% | 21% | 12% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PortoPorto | 24 | 67%−4 pts | 91%−2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  BenficaBenfica | 19 | 21%+2 pts | 65%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  SportingSporting | 18 | 12%+2 pts | 43%+2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 18 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  AroucaArouca | 14 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  Académico ViseuAcadémico de Viseu | 14 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 7 |  BragaBraga | 11 | <1%±0 | <1%−2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 8 |  AlvercaAlverca | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | <1%−3 pts |
| 9 |  Gil VicenteGil Vicente | 11 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  Estrela AmadoraEstrela da Amadora | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 3%+1 pt |
| 11 |  MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 8%+2 pts |
| 12 |  MarítimoMarítimo | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 10%−1 pt |
| 13 |  FamalicãoFamalicão | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt |
| 14 |  Rio AveRio Ave | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 20%−21 pts |
| 15 |  V. GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 15%+1 pt |
| 16 |  NacionalNacional | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 33%+10 pts |
| 17 |  Casa PiaCasa Pia | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 76%+4 pts |
| 18 |  EstorilEstoril Praia | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 34%+8 pts |
Chances after Matchday 8, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 7 below each.