Primeira Liga title odds after Matchday 3
After the games up to 24 August 2026
Porto lead the title race at 52%. Estoril 0–2 Rio Ave moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Porto beat Arouca 2–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 47% to 52%. Benfica didn't play, and their title chances fell from 25% to 22%. Porto lead the title race at 52%.
Champions League
Up
Porto77%81%+4 pts
Gil Vicente1%2%+1 pt
Down
Benfica57%53%−4 pts
Porto beat Arouca 2–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 77% to 81%. Benfica didn't play, and their Champions League chances fell from 57% to 53%.
Relegation
Down
Rio Ave37%14%−23 pts
V. Guimarães13%8%−5 pts
Santa Clara3%1%−2 pts
Estoril lost 2–0 to Rio Ave at home, and their relegation chances rose from 5% to 17%. Rio Ave won 2–0 at Estoril, and their relegation chances fell from 37% to 14%.
Changes since Matchday 2, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Estoril 0–2 Rio Ave moved the odds the most. Estoril lost 2–0 to Rio Ave at home, and their relegation chances rose from 5% to 17%. Rio Ave won 2–0 at Estoril, and their relegation chances fell from 37% to 14%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Porto
- Sporting
- Benfica
- Braga
- Gil Vicente
Show as a table
| Round | Porto | Sporting | Benfica | Braga | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 40% | 12% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 | 47% | 26% | 25% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 52% | 25% | 22% | 1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PortoPorto | 9 | 52%+5 pts | 81%+4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  SportingSporting | 7 | 25%−1 pt | 59%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  MarítimoMarítimo | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 6%+2 pts |
| 4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 7 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%−2 pts |
| 5 |  AroucaArouca | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 6 | Gil VicenteGil Vicente | 6 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 7 | BenficaBenfica | 4 | 22%−3 pts | 53%−4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 8 |  NacionalNacional | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 4%+2 pts |
| 9 | V. GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%−5 pts |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 14%−23 pts |
| 11 |  Estrela AmadoraEstrela da Amadora | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 9%+1 pt |
| 12 |  Académico ViseuAcadémico de Viseu | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 17%−1 pt |
| 13 |  BragaBraga | 1 | 1%±0 | 5%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 14 |  FamalicãoFamalicão | 1 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 2%+1 pt |
| 15 |  MoreirenseMoreirense | 1 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 19%+1 pt |
| 16 |  EstorilEstoril Praia | 1 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 17%+12 pts |
| 17 |  AlvercaAlverca | 1 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 20%+2 pts |
| 18 |  Casa PiaCasa Pia | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 82%+10 pts |
Chances after Matchday 3, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 2 below each.