Primeira Liga title odds after Matchday 7
After the games up to 20 September 2026
Porto lead the title race at 71%. Porto 3–1 Benfica moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Porto beat Benfica 3–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 47% to 71%. Benfica lost 3–1 at Porto, and their title chances fell from 34% to 19%. Porto lead the title race at 71%.
Champions League
Porto beat Benfica 3–1 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 79% to 92%. Sporting drew 2–2 with Arouca at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 49% to 41%.
Relegation
Nacional lost 4–0 to Famalicão at home, and their relegation chances rose from 12% to 23%. Casa Pia won 2–1 at Estoril, and their relegation chances fell from 89% to 72%.
Changes since Matchday 6, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Porto 3–1 Benfica moved the odds the most. Porto beat Benfica 3–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 47% to 71%. Benfica lost 3–1 at Porto, and their title chances fell from 34% to 19%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Porto
- Benfica
- Sporting
- Braga
- Santa Clara
Show as a table
| Round | Porto | Benfica | Sporting | Braga | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 12% | 40% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 | 47% | 25% | 26% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 52% | 22% | 25% | 1% | <1% |
| 4 | 56% | 14% | 29% | 1% | 0% |
| 5 | 50% | 20% | 30% | 1% | 0% |
| 6 | 47% | 34% | 18% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 71% | 19% | 10% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PortoPorto | 21 | 71%+24 pts | 92%+14 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  BenficaBenfica | 16 | 19%−15 pts | 65%−5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  SportingSporting | 15 | 10%−8 pts | 41%−8 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  AroucaArouca | 11 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 6 |  BragaBraga | 11 | <1%±0 | 2%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 7 |  Académico ViseuAcadémico de Viseu | 11 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 1%−3 pts |
| 8 |  Estrela AmadoraEstrela da Amadora | 10 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 2%+1 pt |
| 9 |  MoreirenseMoreirense | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 6%−1 pt |
| 10 |  Gil VicenteGil Vicente | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 11 |  MarítimoMarítimo | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 11%−5 pts |
| 12 |  AlvercaAlverca | 8 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 3%−3 pts |
| 13 |  FamalicãoFamalicão | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 14 |  V. GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 14%−1 pt |
| 15 |  NacionalNacional | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 23%+11 pts |
| 16 |  Rio AveRio Ave | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 41%+8 pts |
| 17 |  Casa PiaCasa Pia | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 72%−17 pts |
| 18 |  EstorilEstoril Praia | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 26%+10 pts |
Chances after Matchday 7, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 6 below each.