Primeira Liga title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 31 August 2026
Porto lead the title race at 56%. Rio Ave 0–4 Sporting moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Porto won 3–0 at Académico Viseu, and their title chances rose from 52% to 56%. Benfica beat Estoril 2–1 at home, and their title chances fell from 22% to 14%. Porto lead the title race at 56%.
Champions League
Down
Benfica53%42%−11 pts
Braga5%4%−1 pt
Gil Vicente2%1%−1 pt
Sporting won 4–0 at Rio Ave, and their Champions League chances rose from 59% to 68%. Benfica beat Estoril 2–1 at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 53% to 42%.
Relegation
Up
Rio Ave14%23%+9 pts
Casa Pia82%88%+6 pts
Académico Viseu17%22%+5 pts
Down
Moreirense19%11%−8 pts
Estrela Amadora9%3%−6 pts
Alverca20%16%−4 pts
Rio Ave lost 4–0 to Sporting at home, and their relegation chances rose from 14% to 23%. Moreirense won 1–0 at Casa Pia, and their relegation chances fell from 19% to 11%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Rio Ave 0–4 Sporting moved the odds the most. Rio Ave lost 4–0 to Sporting at home, and their relegation chances rose from 14% to 23%. Sporting won 4–0 at Rio Ave, and their Champions League chances rose from 59% to 68%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Porto
- Sporting
- Benfica
- Braga
- Gil Vicente
Show as a table
| Round | Porto | Sporting | Benfica | Braga | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 40% | 12% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 | 47% | 26% | 25% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 52% | 25% | 22% | 1% | <1% |
| 4 | 56% | 29% | 14% | 1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PortoPorto | 12 | 56%+4 pts | 85%+4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  SportingSporting | 10 | 29%+4 pts | 68%+9 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  AroucaArouca | 9 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 4 |  Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 5 | BenficaBenfica | 7 | 14%−8 pts | 42%−11 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 | Gil VicenteGil Vicente | 7 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 7 |  MarítimoMarítimo | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 7%+1 pt |
| 8 | Estrela AmadoraEstrela da Amadora | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 3%−6 pts |
| 9 | BragaBraga | 4 | 1%±0 | 4%−1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 10 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 11%−8 pts |
| 11 |  NacionalNacional | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 6%+2 pts |
| 12 |  V. GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 8%±0 |
| 13 | Rio AveRio Ave | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 23%+9 pts |
| 14 |  FamalicãoFamalicão | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt |
| 15 | Académico ViseuAcadémico de Viseu | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 22%+5 pts |
| 16 | AlvercaAlverca | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 16%−4 pts |
| 17 |  EstorilEstoril Praia | 1 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 14%−3 pts |
| 18 | Casa PiaCasa Pia | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 88%+6 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.