Primeira Liga title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 7 September 2026
Porto lead the title race at 50%. Santa Clara 4–0 Rio Ave moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Benfica won 3–0 at Marítimo, and their title chances rose from 14% to 20%. Porto beat Moreirense 2–1 at home, and their title chances fell from 56% to 50%. Porto lead the title race at 50%.
Champions League
Up
Benfica42%50%+8 pts
Down
Porto85%80%−5 pts
Sporting68%66%−2 pts
Gil Vicente1%<1%−1 pt
Benfica won 3–0 at Marítimo, and their Champions League chances rose from 42% to 50%. Porto beat Moreirense 2–1 at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 85% to 80%.
Relegation
Up
Rio Ave23%40%+17 pts
V. Guimarães8%10%+2 pts
Marítimo7%9%+2 pts
Down
Académico Viseu22%8%−14 pts
Casa Pia88%85%−3 pts
Moreirense11%8%−3 pts
Rio Ave lost 4–0 at Santa Clara, and their relegation chances rose from 23% to 40%. Académico Viseu won 1–0 at Gil Vicente, and their relegation chances fell from 22% to 8%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Santa Clara 4–0 Rio Ave moved the odds the most. Santa Clara beat Rio Ave 4–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 1% to <1%. Rio Ave lost 4–0 at Santa Clara, and their relegation chances rose from 23% to 40%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Porto
- Sporting
- Benfica
- Braga
- Estrela Amadora
Show as a table
| Round | Porto | Sporting | Benfica | Braga | Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% |
| 2 | 47% | 26% | 25% | 1% | 0% |
| 3 | 52% | 25% | 22% | 1% | 0% |
| 4 | 56% | 29% | 14% | 1% | 0% |
| 5 | 50% | 30% | 20% | 1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PortoPorto | 15 | 50%−6 pts | 80%−5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | SportingSporting | 13 | 30%+1 pt | 66%−2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 11 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 4 | BenficaBenfica | 10 | 20%+6 pts | 50%+8 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  AroucaArouca | 10 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  BragaBraga | 7 | 1%±0 | 4%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 7 | Gil VicenteGil Vicente | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 8 | MarítimoMarítimo | 7 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 9%+2 pts |
| 9 |  Estrela AmadoraEstrela da Amadora | 6 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 2%−1 pt |
| 10 | Académico ViseuAcadémico de Viseu | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 8%−14 pts |
| 11 | V. GuimarãesVitória de Guimarães | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 10%+2 pts |
| 12 |  NacionalNacional | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 5%−1 pt |
| 13 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 8%−3 pts |
| 14 |  FamalicãoFamalicão | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 |
| 15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 40%+17 pts |
| 16 |  AlvercaAlverca | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 17%+1 pt |
| 17 |  EstorilEstoril Praia | 2 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 13%−1 pt |
| 18 | Casa PiaCasa Pia | 1 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 85%−3 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.