Premier League title odds after Matchday 4

After the games up to 14 September 2026

Arsenal lead the title race at 61%. Coventry 0–5 Brighton moved the odds the most.

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Arsenal58%61%+3 pts
Brighton<1%1%+1 pt

Down

Man City38%36%−2 pts
Chelsea2%<1%−2 pts
Liverpool1%<1%−1 pt

Arsenal won 2–0 at Sunderland, and their title chances rose from 58% to 61%. Man City won 1–0 at Man United, and their title chances fell from 38% to 36%. Arsenal lead the title race at 61%.

Champions League

Brighton27%53%+26 pts
Leeds9%24%+15 pts
Nottm Forest2%5%+3 pts

Down

Chelsea44%29%−15 pts
Liverpool30%22%−8 pts
Newcastle13%5%−8 pts

Brighton won 5–0 at Coventry, and their Champions League chances rose from 27% to 53%. Chelsea drew 2–2 with Hull at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 44% to 29%.

Relegation

Crystal Palace15%30%+15 pts
Coventry78%91%+13 pts
Aston Villa11%16%+5 pts

Down

Ipswich68%48%−20 pts
Hull43%37%−6 pts
Nottm Forest9%3%−6 pts

Crystal Palace lost 3–2 to Ipswich at home, and their relegation chances rose from 15% to 30%. Ipswich won 3–2 at Crystal Palace, and their relegation chances fell from 68% to 48%.

Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Coventry City

0–5

Brighton & Hove Albion

Coventry 0–5 Brighton moved the odds the most. Coventry lost 5–0 to Brighton at home, and their relegation chances rose from 78% to 91%. Brighton won 5–0 at Coventry, and their Champions League chances rose from 27% to 53%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Arsenal
Man City
Brighton
Chelsea
Leeds

Show as a table

Round	Arsenal	Man City	Brighton	Chelsea	Leeds
1	58%	31%	3%	3%	<1%
2	56%	39%	1%	1%	<1%
3	58%	38%	<1%	2%	<1%
4	61%	36%	1%	<1%	<1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	Champions LeagueChampions League	RelegationRelegation
1	ArsenalArsenal	12	61%+3 pts	99%±0	0%±0
2	Man CityManchester City	12	36%−2 pts	98%+1 pt	0%±0
3	LeedsLeeds United	8	<1%±0	24%+15 pts	<1%−2 pts
4	HullHull City	8	0%±0	<1%±0	37%−6 pts
5	BrightonBrighton & Hove Albion	7	1%+1 pt	53%+26 pts	<1%±0
6	ChelseaChelsea	7	<1%−2 pts	29%−15 pts	<1%±0
7	BrentfordBrentford	6	<1%−1 pt	21%−1 pt	<1%−1 pt
8	LiverpoolLiverpool	6	<1%−1 pt	22%−8 pts	<1%±0
9	EvertonEverton	6	<1%±0	10%−2 pts	2%±0
10	IpswichIpswich Town	6	0%±0	<1%±0	48%−20 pts
11	Nottm ForestNottingham Forest	5	<1%±0	5%+3 pts	3%−6 pts
12	NewcastleNewcastle United	5	<1%±0	5%−8 pts	3%+2 pts
13	Man UnitedManchester United	4	<1%−1 pt	21%−6 pts	1%+1 pt
14	SunderlandSunderland	4	0%±0	1%−3 pts	9%+3 pts
15	BournemouthBournemouth	3	<1%±0	9%−2 pts	2%±0
16	Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace	3	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	30%+15 pts
17	TottenhamTottenham Hotspur	2	0%±0	<1%±0	36%+1 pt
18	FulhamFulham	1	0%±0	<1%−1 pt	21%−4 pts
19	Aston VillaAston Villa	1	0%±0	1%−1 pt	16%+5 pts
20	CoventryCoventry City	0	0%±0	0%±0	91%+13 pts