Premier League title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 20 September 2026
Man City lead the title race at 56%. Brighton 3–0 Arsenal moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Man City beat Sunderland 5–3 at home, and their title chances rose from 36% to 56%. Arsenal lost 3–0 at Brighton, and their title chances fell from 61% to 34%. Man City lead the title race at 56%.
Champions League
Down
Chelsea29%13%−16 pts
Leeds24%15%−9 pts
Man United21%15%−6 pts
Brighton beat Arsenal 3–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 53% to 77%. Chelsea lost 3–0 at Brentford, and their Champions League chances fell from 29% to 13%.
Relegation
Up
Tottenham36%45%+9 pts
Nottm Forest3%9%+6 pts
Ipswich48%52%+4 pts
Down
Coventry91%80%−11 pts
Aston Villa16%8%−8 pts
Crystal Palace30%26%−4 pts
Tottenham lost 3–2 to Aston Villa at home, and their relegation chances rose from 36% to 45%. Coventry won 1–0 at Nottm Forest, and their relegation chances fell from 91% to 80%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Brighton 3–0 Arsenal moved the odds the most. Brighton beat Arsenal 3–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 53% to 77%. Arsenal lost 3–0 at Brighton, and their title chances fell from 61% to 34%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Man City
- Arsenal
- Brighton
- Brentford
- Liverpool
Show as a table
| Round | Man City | Arsenal | Brighton | Brentford | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 58% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
| 2 | 39% | 56% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 38% | 58% | <1% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 | 36% | 61% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 56% | 34% | 8% | 1% | 1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man CityManchester City | 15 | 56%+20 pts | 98%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  ArsenalArsenal | 12 | 34%−27 pts | 96%−3 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  BrightonBrighton & Hove Albion | 10 | 8%+7 pts | 77%+24 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  BrentfordBrentford | 9 | 1%+1 pt | 34%+13 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 | LeedsLeeds United | 9 | <1%±0 | 15%−9 pts | <1%±0 |
| 6 |  LiverpoolLiverpool | 9 | 1%+1 pt | 30%+8 pts | <1%±0 |
| 7 |  EvertonEverton | 9 | <1%±0 | 10%±0 | 1%−1 pt |
| 8 |  HullHull City | 8 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 40%+3 pts |
| 9 |  NewcastleNewcastle United | 8 | <1%±0 | 5%±0 | 3%±0 |
| 10 | ChelseaChelsea | 7 | <1%±0 | 13%−16 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 11 | IpswichIpswich Town | 6 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 52%+4 pts |
| 12 | Man UnitedManchester United | 5 | <1%±0 | 15%−6 pts | 1%±0 |
| 13 | Nottm ForestNottingham Forest | 5 | <1%±0 | 1%−4 pts | 9%+6 pts |
| 14 |  SunderlandSunderland | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 11%+2 pts |
| 15 | Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 26%−4 pts |
| 16 | Aston VillaAston Villa | 4 | 0%±0 | 2%+1 pt | 8%−8 pts |
| 17 |  BournemouthBournemouth | 3 | 0%±0 | 3%−6 pts | 4%+2 pts |
| 18 | CoventryCoventry City | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 80%−11 pts |
| 19 |  FulhamFulham | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 20%−1 pt |
| 20 | TottenhamTottenham Hotspur | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 45%+9 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.