Premier League title odds after Matchday 6
After the games up to 12 October 2026
Man City lead the title race at 64%. Coventry 4–1 Newcastle moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Man City won 3–0 at Liverpool, and their title chances rose from 56% to 64%. Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1 at home, and their title chances fell from 34% to 27%. Man City lead the title race at 64%.
Champions League
Down
Liverpool30%14%−16 pts
Man United15%11%−4 pts
Newcastle5%1%−4 pts
Chelsea beat Bournemouth 5–1 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 13% to 30%. Liverpool lost 3–0 to Man City at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 30% to 14%.
Relegation
Up
Fulham20%34%+14 pts
Nottm Forest9%19%+10 pts
Sunderland11%20%+9 pts
Down
Coventry80%53%−27 pts
Crystal Palace26%14%−12 pts
Ipswich52%41%−11 pts
Fulham lost 2–1 at Ipswich, and their relegation chances rose from 20% to 34%. Coventry beat Newcastle 4–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 80% to 53%.
Changes since Matchday 5, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Coventry 4–1 Newcastle moved the odds the most. Coventry beat Newcastle 4–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 80% to 53%. Newcastle lost 4–1 at Coventry, and their relegation chances rose from 3% to 11%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Man City
- Arsenal
- Brighton
- Brentford
- Chelsea
Show as a table
| Round | Man City | Arsenal | Brighton | Brentford | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% | 58% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
| 2 | 39% | 56% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 3 | 38% | 58% | <1% | 1% | 2% |
| 4 | 36% | 61% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 56% | 34% | 8% | 1% | <1% |
| 6 | 64% | 27% | 8% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man CityManchester City | 18 | 64%+8 pts | >99%+2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  ArsenalArsenal | 15 | 27%−7 pts | 98%+2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  BrightonBrighton & Hove Albion | 13 | 8%±0 | 89%+12 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 |  BrentfordBrentford | 10 | <1%−1 pt | 33%−1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  EvertonEverton | 10 | <1%±0 | 8%−2 pts | 1%±0 |
| 6 |  ChelseaChelsea | 10 | <1%±0 | 30%+17 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 7 |  LeedsLeeds United | 9 | <1%±0 | 12%−3 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 8 |  HullHull City | 9 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 41%+1 pt |
| 9 | LiverpoolLiverpool | 9 | <1%−1 pt | 14%−16 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 10 | IpswichIpswich Town | 9 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 41%−11 pts |
| 11 | NewcastleNewcastle United | 8 | 0%±0 | 1%−4 pts | 11%+8 pts |
| 12 | Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace | 7 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 14%−12 pts |
| 13 | Man UnitedManchester United | 6 | <1%±0 | 11%−4 pts | 1%±0 |
| 14 | CoventryCoventry City | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 53%−27 pts |
| 15 | Nottm ForestNottingham Forest | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 19%+10 pts |
| 16 |  Aston VillaAston Villa | 5 | 0%±0 | 2%±0 | 8%±0 |
| 17 | SunderlandSunderland | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 20%+9 pts |
| 18 |  BournemouthBournemouth | 3 | 0%±0 | 1%−2 pts | 12%+8 pts |
| 19 |  TottenhamTottenham Hotspur | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 45%±0 |
| 20 | FulhamFulham | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 34%+14 pts |
Chances after Matchday 6, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 5 below each.