Premier League title odds after Matchday 3
After the games up to 6 September 2026
Arsenal lead the title race at 58%. Fulham 2–3 Crystal Palace moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Arsenal beat Chelsea 2–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 56% to 58%. Man City beat Coventry 1–0 at home, and their title chances fell from 39% to 38%. Arsenal lead the title race at 58%.
Champions League
Liverpool won 2–0 at Ipswich, and their Champions League chances rose from 18% to 30%. Brighton drew 1–1 with Leeds at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 33% to 27%.
Relegation
Up
Ipswich56%68%+12 pts
Fulham15%25%+10 pts
Aston Villa9%11%+2 pts
Down
Crystal Palace34%15%−19 pts
Hull47%43%−4 pts
Tottenham36%35%−1 pt
Ipswich lost 2–0 to Liverpool at home, and their relegation chances rose from 56% to 68%. Crystal Palace won 3–2 at Fulham, and their relegation chances fell from 34% to 15%.
Changes since Matchday 2, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Fulham 2–3 Crystal Palace moved the odds the most. Fulham lost 3–2 to Crystal Palace at home, and their relegation chances rose from 15% to 25%. Crystal Palace won 3–2 at Fulham, and their relegation chances fell from 34% to 15%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Arsenal
- Man City
- Chelsea
- Liverpool
- Man United
Show as a table
| Round | Arsenal | Man City | Chelsea | Liverpool | Man United |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% | 31% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 56% | 39% | 1% | <1% | 1% |
| 3 | 58% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Man CityManchester City | 9 | 38%−1 pt | 97%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  ArsenalArsenal | 9 | 58%+2 pts | 99%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 3 | HullHull City | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 43%−4 pts |
| 4 |  ChelseaChelsea | 6 | 2%+1 pt | 44%+3 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  BrentfordBrentford | 5 | 1%±0 | 22%−5 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 6 |  LiverpoolLiverpool | 5 | 1%+1 pt | 30%+12 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 7 |  NewcastleNewcastle United | 5 | <1%±0 | 13%−2 pts | 1%±0 |
| 8 |  EvertonEverton | 5 | <1%±0 | 12%−2 pts | 2%±0 |
| 9 |  LeedsLeeds United | 5 | <1%±0 | 9%±0 | 2%−1 pt |
| 10 |  BrightonBrighton & Hove Albion | 4 | <1%−1 pt | 27%−6 pts | <1%±0 |
| 11 |  Man UnitedManchester United | 4 | 1%±0 | 27%±0 | <1%−1 pt |
| 12 |  SunderlandSunderland | 4 | <1%±0 | 4%+1 pt | 6%−1 pt |
| 13 | Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace | 3 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 15%−19 pts |
| 14 | IpswichIpswich Town | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 68%+12 pts |
| 15 |  BournemouthBournemouth | 2 | <1%±0 | 11%+1 pt | 2%−1 pt |
| 16 |  Nottm ForestNottingham Forest | 2 | <1%±0 | 2%−1 pt | 9%+1 pt |
| 17 | Aston VillaAston Villa | 1 | <1%±0 | 2%−1 pt | 11%+2 pts |
| 18 | TottenhamTottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 35%−1 pt |
| 19 | FulhamFulham | 0 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 25%+10 pts |
| 20 |  CoventryCoventry City | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 78%+1 pt |
Chances after Matchday 3, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 2 below each.