Scottish Premiership title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 3 September 2026
Celtic lead the title race at 53%. Hibernian 1–3 Hearts moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Celtic50%53%+3 pts
Motherwell7%10%+3 pts
Hearts26%28%+2 pts
Celtic beat Aberdeen 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 50% to 53%. Hibernian lost 3–1 to Hearts at home, and their title chances fell from 7% to 2%. Celtic lead the title race at 53%.
Champions League
Up
- Motherwell22%29%+7 pts
- Hearts55%61%+6 pts
- Celtic75%79%+4 pts
Motherwell beat Dundee Utd 3–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 22% to 29%. Hibernian lost 3–1 to Hearts at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 20% to 7%.
Relegation
Up
Kilmarnock59%66%+7 pts
Aberdeen9%11%+2 pts
Dundee Utd6%7%+1 pt
Down
St Johnstone13%8%−5 pts
St Mirren3%1%−2 pts
Falkirk8%7%−1 pt
Kilmarnock lost 1–0 to St Mirren at home, and their relegation chances rose from 59% to 66%. St Johnstone drew 1–1 at Dundee, and their relegation chances fell from 13% to 8%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Hibernian 1–3 Hearts moved the odds the most. Hibernian lost 3–1 to Hearts at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 20% to 7%. Hearts won 3–1 at Hibernian, and their Champions League chances rose from 55% to 61%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Celtic
- Hearts
- Motherwell
- Rangers
- Hibernian
Show as a table
| Round | Celtic | Hearts | Motherwell | Rangers | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34% | 15% | 25% | 21% | 3% |
| 2 | 51% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 5% |
| 3 | 50% | 26% | 7% | 10% | 7% |
| 4 | 53% | 28% | 10% | 7% | 2% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CelticCeltic | 12 | 53%+3 pts | 79%+4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | St MirrenSt Mirren | 10 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%−2 pts |
| 3 | HeartsHeart of Midlothian | 9 | 28%+2 pts | 61%+6 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 | MotherwellMotherwell | 8 | 10%+3 pts | 29%+7 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 |  DundeeDundee | 7 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 1%−1 pt |
| 6 |  RangersRangers | 7 | 7%−3 pts | 23%−4 pts | 0%±0 |
| 7 |  HibernianHibernian | 6 | 2%−5 pts | 7%−13 pts | <1%±0 |
| 8 | St JohnstoneSt Johnstone | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 8%−5 pts |
| 9 | Dundee UtdDundee United | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 7%+1 pt |
| 10 | AberdeenAberdeen | 3 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 11%+2 pts |
| 11 | FalkirkFalkirk | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 7%−1 pt |
| 12 | KilmarnockKilmarnock | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 66%+7 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.