2. Bundesliga title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 13 September 2026
Hertha BSC lead the title race at 33%. St. Pauli 1–0 Wolfsburg moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Hertha BSC21%33%+12 pts
Nürnberg13%18%+5 pts
Heidenheim17%20%+3 pts
Down
Wolfsburg37%22%−15 pts
Kaiserslautern7%2%−5 pts
Bochum1%<1%−1 pt
Hertha BSC won 3–1 at Osnabrück, and their title chances rose from 21% to 33%. Wolfsburg lost 1–0 at St. Pauli, and their title chances fell from 37% to 22%. Hertha BSC lead the title race at 33%.
Promotion
Up
- Hertha BSC42%56%+14 pts
- Nürnberg28%37%+9 pts
- Heidenheim35%40%+5 pts
Down
- Wolfsburg60%43%−17 pts
- Kaiserslautern18%6%−12 pts
Hannover4%2%−2 pts
Hertha BSC won 3–1 at Osnabrück, and their promotion chances rose from 42% to 56%. Wolfsburg lost 1–0 at St. Pauli, and their promotion chances fell from 60% to 43%.
Relegation
Up
Karlsruher11%28%+17 pts
Osnabrück28%36%+8 pts
Holstein Kiel14%17%+3 pts
Karlsruher lost 3–0 to Cottbus at home, and their relegation chances rose from 11% to 28%. Cottbus won 3–0 at Karlsruher, and their relegation chances fell from 35% to 16%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
St. Pauli 1–0 Wolfsburg moved the odds the most. St. Pauli beat Wolfsburg 1–0 at home, and their promotion chances rose from 6% to 10%. Wolfsburg lost 1–0 at St. Pauli, and their promotion chances fell from 60% to 43%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Hertha BSC
- Wolfsburg
- Heidenheim
- Nürnberg
- St. Pauli
Show as a table
| Round | Hertha BSC | Wolfsburg | Heidenheim | Nürnberg | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5% | 31% | 27% | 7% | 12% |
| 2 | 15% | 41% | 10% | 12% | 9% |
| 3 | 16% | 51% | 11% | 14% | 2% |
| 4 | 21% | 37% | 17% | 13% | 2% |
| 5 | 33% | 22% | 20% | 18% | 4% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | PromotionPromotion | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSCHertha BSC | 15 | 33%+12 pts | 56%+14 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | Nürnberg1. FC Nürnberg | 13 | 18%+5 pts | 37%+9 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | Heidenheim1. FC Heidenheim | 12 | 20%+3 pts | 40%+5 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  Magdeburg1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 1%+1 pt | 3%+2 pts | 3%−7 pts |
| 5 | WolfsburgVfL Wolfsburg | 8 | 22%−15 pts | 43%−17 pts | <1%±0 |
| 6 | KaiserslauternKaiserslautern | 8 | 2%−5 pts | 6%−12 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 7 |  CottbusEnergie Cottbus | 7 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 16%−19 pts |
| 8 | BochumVfL Bochum | 7 | <1%−1 pt | 1%−1 pt | 5%+1 pt |
| 9 |  St. PauliSt. Pauli | 6 | 4%+2 pts | 10%+4 pts | 1%±0 |
| 10 | OsnabrückVfL Osnabrück | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 36%+8 pts |
| 11 |  Greuther FürthGreuther Fürth | 5 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 23%−3 pts |
| 12 | KarlsruherKarlsruher SC | 5 | <1%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 28%+17 pts |
| 13 |  BraunschweigEintracht Braunschweig | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 31%±0 |
| 14 |  BielefeldArminia Bielefeld | 4 | <1%±0 | 1%±0 | 10%+3 pts |
| 15 | HannoverHannover 96 | 4 | 1%±0 | 2%−2 pts | 4%+2 pts |
| 16 |  DarmstadtSV Darmstadt 98 | 4 | <1%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 10%−4 pts |
| 17 |  Dynamo DresdenDynamo Dresden | 4 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 16%±0 |
| 18 | Holstein KielHolstein Kiel | 3 | <1%±0 | <1%±0 | 17%+3 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.