Serie A title odds after Matchday 9

After the games up to 29 October 2026

Inter lead the title race at 55%. Milan 2–4 Bologna moved the odds the most.

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Lazio5%8%+3 pts
Como7%9%+2 pts

Down

Milan4%1%−3 pts
Inter56%55%−1 pt
Roma27%26%−1 pt

Lazio won 6–2 at Sassuolo, and their title chances rose from 5% to 8%. Milan lost 4–2 to Bologna at home, and their title chances fell from 4% to 1%. Inter lead the title race at 55%.

Champions League

Lazio58%77%+19 pts
Como69%80%+11 pts
Napoli11%20%+9 pts

Down

Milan56%23%−33 pts
Juventus16%5%−11 pts

Lazio won 6–2 at Sassuolo, and their Champions League chances rose from 58% to 77%. Milan lost 4–2 to Bologna at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 56% to 23%.

Relegation

Lecce23%39%+16 pts
Monza27%38%+11 pts
Udinese28%32%+4 pts

Down

Genoa26%6%−20 pts
Fiorentina35%25%−10 pts
Parma69%66%−3 pts

Lecce lost 5–1 at Frosinone, and their relegation chances rose from 23% to 39%. Genoa beat Juventus 2–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 26% to 6%.

Changes since Matchday 8, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

AC Milan

2–4

Bologna

Milan 2–4 Bologna moved the odds the most. Milan lost 4–2 to Bologna at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 56% to 23%. Bologna won 4–2 at Milan, and their Champions League chances rose from <1% to 1%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Inter
Roma
Como
Lazio
Milan

Show as a table

Round	Inter	Roma	Como	Lazio	Milan
1	47%	22%	10%	<1%	3%
2	40%	35%	9%	<1%	2%
3	40%	37%	15%	<1%	2%
4	41%	42%	14%	<1%	1%
5	50%	37%	5%	1%	3%
6	57%	31%	5%	1%	2%
7	57%	33%	4%	4%	2%
8	56%	27%	7%	5%	4%
9	55%	26%	9%	8%	1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	Champions LeagueChampions League	RelegationRelegation
1	InterInter	25	55%−1 pt	98%+1 pt	0%±0
2	LazioLazio	25	8%+3 pts	77%+19 pts	0%±0
3	RomaRoma	21	26%−1 pt	94%+3 pts	0%±0
4	ComoComo	20	9%+2 pts	80%+11 pts	0%±0
5	MilanAC Milan	18	1%−3 pts	23%−33 pts	0%±0
6	FrosinoneFrosinone	17	<1%±0	2%+1 pt	<1%−1 pt
7	NapoliNapoli	14	<1%±0	20%+9 pts	0%±0
8	JuventusJuventus	14	<1%−1 pt	5%−11 pts	<1%±0
9	TorinoTorino	13	0%±0	<1%±0	1%±0
10	CagliariCagliari	13	0%±0	<1%±0	4%+1 pt
11	AtalantaAtalanta	11	0%±0	1%±0	<1%±0
12	BolognaBologna	11	0%±0	1%+1 pt	<1%−1 pt
13	GenoaGenoa	10	0%±0	0%±0	6%−20 pts
14	LecceLecce	9	0%±0	0%±0	39%+16 pts
15	SassuoloSassuolo	8	0%±0	<1%±0	6%+3 pts
16	MonzaMonza	7	0%±0	0%±0	38%+11 pts
17	UdineseUdinese	5	0%±0	0%±0	32%+4 pts
18	ParmaParma	5	0%±0	0%±0	66%−3 pts
19	FiorentinaFiorentina	5	0%±0	0%±0	25%−10 pts
20	VeneziaVenezia	3	0%±0	0%±0	83%−1 pt

Chances after Matchday 9, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 8 below each.

Round	Inter	Roma	Como	Lazio	Milan
1	47%	22%	10%	<1%	3%
2	40%	35%	9%	<1%	2%
3	40%	37%	15%	<1%	2%
4	41%	42%	14%	<1%	1%
5	50%	37%	5%	1%	3%
6	57%	31%	5%	1%	2%
7	57%	33%	4%	4%	2%
8	56%	27%	7%	5%	4%
9	55%	26%	9%	8%	1%

Round	Inter	Roma	Como	Lazio	Milan
1	47%	22%	10%	<1%	3%
2	40%	35%	9%	<1%	2%
3	40%	37%	15%	<1%	2%
4	41%	42%	14%	<1%	1%
5	50%	37%	5%	1%	3%
6	57%	31%	5%	1%	2%
7	57%	33%	4%	4%	2%
8	56%	27%	7%	5%	4%
9	55%	26%	9%	8%	1%

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Champions League

Relegation

Result of the round

The title race

Every club's chances

All reports this season

Round	Inter	Roma	Como	Lazio	Milan
1	47%	22%	10%	<1%	3%
2	40%	35%	9%	<1%	2%
3	40%	37%	15%	<1%	2%
4	41%	42%	14%	<1%	1%
5	50%	37%	5%	1%	3%
6	57%	31%	5%	1%	2%
7	57%	33%	4%	4%	2%
8	56%	27%	7%	5%	4%
9	55%	26%	9%	8%	1%