Serie A title odds after Matchday 4

After the games up to 14 September 2026

Roma lead the title race at 42%. Venezia 2–4 Fiorentina moved the odds the most.

Biggest risers and fallers

Title

Roma37%42%+5 pts
Inter40%41%+1 pt

Down

Juventus5%1%−4 pts
Como15%14%−1 pt
Milan2%1%−1 pt

Roma won 2–0 at Torino, and their title chances rose from 37% to 42%. Juventus lost 3–2 at Sassuolo, and their title chances fell from 5% to 1%. Roma lead the title race at 42%.

Champions League

Napoli18%28%+10 pts
Como79%84%+5 pts
Roma92%96%+4 pts

Down

Juventus53%33%−20 pts
Atalanta18%11%−7 pts

Napoli beat Bologna 1–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 18% to 28%. Juventus lost 3–2 at Sassuolo, and their Champions League chances fell from 53% to 33%.

Relegation

Venezia68%83%+15 pts
Monza48%61%+13 pts
Torino11%15%+4 pts

Down

Fiorentina51%29%−22 pts
Lecce34%19%−15 pts
Cagliari2%<1%−2 pts

Venezia lost 4–2 to Fiorentina at home, and their relegation chances rose from 68% to 83%. Fiorentina won 4–2 at Venezia, and their relegation chances fell from 51% to 29%.

Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.

Result of the round

Venezia

2–4

Fiorentina

Venezia 2–4 Fiorentina moved the odds the most. Venezia lost 4–2 to Fiorentina at home, and their relegation chances rose from 68% to 83%. Fiorentina won 4–2 at Venezia, and their relegation chances fell from 51% to 29%.

Match preview

The game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.

The title race

Roma
Inter
Como
Juventus
Milan

Show as a table

Round	Roma	Inter	Como	Juventus	Milan
1	22%	47%	10%	9%	3%
2	35%	40%	9%	9%	2%
3	37%	40%	15%	5%	2%
4	42%	41%	14%	1%	1%

The top five clubs' title chances after each round.

Every club's chances

#	Club	Pts	TitleTitle	Champions LeagueChampions League	RelegationRelegation
1	RomaRoma	12	42%+5 pts	96%+4 pts	0%±0
2	InterInter	12	41%+1 pt	96%+3 pts	0%±0
3	ComoComo	10	14%−1 pt	84%+5 pts	0%±0
4	LazioLazio	10	<1%±0	15%+2 pts	<1%±0
5	CagliariCagliari	9	0%±0	3%+2 pts	<1%−2 pts
6	MilanAC Milan	8	1%−1 pt	30%±0	<1%±0
7	SassuoloSassuolo	7	0%±0	3%+2 pts	<1%−1 pt
8	JuventusJuventus	7	1%−4 pts	33%−20 pts	0%±0
9	FrosinoneFrosinone	7	0%±0	<1%±0	5%+1 pt
10	NapoliNapoli	6	1%±0	28%+10 pts	0%±0
11	AtalantaAtalanta	6	<1%−1 pt	11%−7 pts	<1%±0
12	LecceLecce	6	0%±0	<1%±0	19%−15 pts
13	UdineseUdinese	4	0%±0	1%±0	1%±0
14	TorinoTorino	3	0%±0	<1%±0	15%+4 pts
15	FiorentinaFiorentina	3	0%±0	<1%±0	29%−22 pts
16	ParmaParma	1	0%±0	0%±0	47%+3 pts
17	MonzaMonza	1	0%±0	0%±0	61%+13 pts
18	BolognaBologna	1	0%±0	<1%±0	6%+2 pts
19	GenoaGenoa	1	0%±0	0%±0	33%+1 pt
20	VeneziaVenezia	0	0%±0	0%±0	83%+15 pts