Serie A title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 20 September 2026
Inter lead the title race at 50%. Frosinone 2–0 Como moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Inter drew 2–2 at Roma, and their title chances rose from 41% to 50%. Como lost 2–0 at Frosinone, and their title chances fell from 14% to 5%. Inter lead the title race at 50%.
Champions League
Juventus beat Atalanta 2–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 33% to 53%. Como lost 2–0 at Frosinone, and their Champions League chances fell from 84% to 57%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Frosinone 2–0 Como moved the odds the most. Frosinone beat Como 2–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 5% to 1%. Como lost 2–0 at Frosinone, and their Champions League chances fell from 84% to 57%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Inter
- Roma
- Como
- Juventus
- Milan
Show as a table
| Round | Inter | Roma | Como | Juventus | Milan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 3% |
| 2 | 40% | 35% | 9% | 9% | 2% |
| 3 | 40% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% |
| 4 | 41% | 42% | 14% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 | 50% | 37% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  RomaRoma | 13 | 37%−5 pts | 94%−2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  InterInter | 13 | 50%+9 pts | 96%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  LazioLazio | 13 | 1%+1 pt | 22%+7 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  CagliariCagliari | 12 | <1%±0 | 5%+2 pts | <1%±0 |
| 5 |  MilanAC Milan | 11 | 3%+2 pts | 50%+20 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 |  JuventusJuventus | 10 | 4%+3 pts | 53%+20 pts | 0%±0 |
| 7 |  FrosinoneFrosinone | 10 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 1%−4 pts |
| 8 |  ComoComo | 10 | 5%−9 pts | 57%−27 pts | 0%±0 |
| 9 |  NapoliNapoli | 7 | <1%−1 pt | 17%−11 pts | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  SassuoloSassuolo | 7 | 0%±0 | 1%−2 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 11 |  AtalantaAtalanta | 6 | <1%±0 | 4%−7 pts | <1%±0 |
| 12 |  LecceLecce | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 33%+14 pts |
| 13 |  UdineseUdinese | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 4%+3 pts |
| 14 |  TorinoTorino | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 15%±0 |
| 15 |  ParmaParma | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 30%−17 pts |
| 16 |  MonzaMonza | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 41%−20 pts |
| 17 |  FiorentinaFiorentina | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 26%−3 pts |
| 18 |  BolognaBologna | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 8%+2 pts |
| 19 |  GenoaGenoa | 1 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 50%+17 pts |
| 20 |  VeneziaVenezia | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 90%+7 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.