Saudi Pro League title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 30 August 2026
Al Nassr lead the title race at 50%. Al Kholood 3–1 Al Ahli moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Al Hilal won 5–1 at Al Khaleej, and their title chances rose from 26% to 39%. Al Ahli lost 3–1 at Al Kholood, and their title chances fell from 19% to 4%. Al Nassr lead the title race at 50%.
AFC Champions League Elite
Up
Al Kholood3%15%+12 pts
Al Diriyah1%7%+6 pts
Al Qadsiah96%98%+2 pts
Down
Al Ettifaq22%9%−13 pts
Neom SC14%8%−6 pts
Al Ahli99%97%−2 pts
Al Kholood beat Al Ahli 3–1 at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 3% to 15%. Al Ettifaq lost 3–0 to Al Diriyah at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances fell from 22% to 9%.
Relegation
Up
Abha57%69%+12 pts
Al Khaleej8%18%+10 pts
Al Faisaly46%52%+6 pts
Down
Al Riyadh55%44%−11 pts- Al Diriyah16%5%−11 pts
Al Fayha28%18%−10 pts
Abha lost 3–2 at Al Fayha, and their relegation chances rose from 57% to 69%. Al Riyadh beat Neom SC 1–0 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 55% to 44%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Al Kholood 3–1 Al Ahli moved the odds the most. Al Kholood beat Al Ahli 3–1 at home, and their AFC Champions League Elite chances rose from 3% to 15%. Al Ahli lost 3–1 at Al Kholood, and their title chances fell from 19% to 4%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Al Nassr
- Al Hilal
- Al Qadsiah
- Al Ahli
- Al Ittihad
Show as a table
| Round | Al Nassr | Al Hilal | Al Qadsiah | Al Ahli | Al Ittihad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% | 22% | 17% | 16% | <1% |
| 2 | 52% | 26% | 4% | 19% | <1% |
| 3 | 49% | 26% | 7% | 19% | <1% |
| 4 | 50% | 39% | 7% | 4% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | ACL EliteAFC Champions League Elite | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al NassrAl Nassr | 12 | 50%+1 pt | >99%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 2 |  Al HilalAl Hilal | 9 | 39%+13 pts | >99%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 3 | Al QadsiahAl Qadsiah | 9 | 7%±0 | 98%+2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 4 | Al KholoodAl Kholood | 8 | <1%±0 | 15%+12 pts | 2%−7 pts |
| 5 |  Al IttihadAl Ittihad | 8 | <1%±0 | 47%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 6 | Al DiriyahAl Diriyah | 7 | 0%±0 | 7%+6 pts | 5%−11 pts |
| 7 | Al AhliAl Ahli | 6 | 4%−15 pts | 97%−2 pts | 0%±0 |
| 8 | Neom SCNeom SC | 6 | <1%±0 | 8%−6 pts | 4%+2 pts |
| 9 | Al EttifaqAl Ettifaq | 6 | 0%±0 | 9%−13 pts | 4%+3 pts |
| 10 |  Al HazemAl Hazem | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 28%+3 pts |
| 11 | Al FayhaAl Fayha | 4 | 0%±0 | 2%+2 pts | 18%−10 pts |
| 12 | Al RiyadhAl Riyadh | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 44%−11 pts |
| 13 |  Al ShababAl Shabab | 3 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 21%+3 pts |
| 14 | Al KhaleejAl Khaleej | 3 | 0%±0 | 2%−2 pts | 18%+10 pts |
| 15 |  Al TaawounAl Taawoun | 2 | 0%±0 | 12%±0 | 3%+1 pt |
| 16 |  Al FatehAl Fateh | 2 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 34%+2 pts |
| 17 | AbhaAbha | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 69%+12 pts |
| 18 | Al FaisalyAl Faisaly | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 52%+6 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.