Bundesliga title odds after Matchday 6
After the games up to 18 October 2026
Bayern lead the title race at 91%. Gladbach 1–2 Hoffenheim moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Bayern85%91%+6 pts
Down
Dortmund11%7%−4 pts
RB Leipzig2%<1%−2 pts
Bayern beat RB Leipzig 6–1 at home, and their title chances rose from 85% to 91%. Dortmund drew 0–0 at Union Berlin, and their title chances fell from 11% to 7%. Bayern lead the title race at 91%.
Champions League
Up
Leverkusen67%78%+11 pts
Mainz2%5%+3 pts
Hoffenheim1%4%+3 pts
Down
- RB Leipzig62%52%−10 pts
Stuttgart29%23%−6 pts
Augsburg8%7%−1 pt
Leverkusen beat Freiburg 2–1 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 67% to 78%. RB Leipzig lost 6–1 at Bayern, and their Champions League chances fell from 62% to 52%.
Relegation
Down
Paderborn57%48%−9 pts
Hamburg13%7%−6 pts
Elversberg10%4%−6 pts
Gladbach lost 2–1 to Hoffenheim at home, and their relegation chances rose from 46% to 60%. Paderborn drew 2–2 at Werder Bremen, and their relegation chances fell from 57% to 48%.
Changes since Matchday 5, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Gladbach 1–2 Hoffenheim moved the odds the most. Gladbach lost 2–1 to Hoffenheim at home, and their relegation chances rose from 46% to 60%. Hoffenheim won 2–1 at Gladbach, and their Champions League chances rose from 1% to 4%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Bayern
- Dortmund
- Leverkusen
- RB Leipzig
- Freiburg
Show as a table
| Round | Bayern | Dortmund | Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 87% | 9% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 | 83% | 14% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 82% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 | 83% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 85% | 11% | 2% | 2% | <1% |
| 6 | 91% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BayernBayern Munich | 14 | 91%+6 pts | >99%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 2 | DortmundBorussia Dortmund | 14 | 7%−4 pts | 92%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  FreiburgFreiburg | 13 | <1%±0 | 35%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 4 | LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen | 13 | 2%±0 | 78%+11 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 | MainzMainz 05 | 10 | <1%±0 | 5%+3 pts | 1%−1 pt |
| 6 | ElversbergSV Elversberg | 10 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 4%−6 pts |
| 7 | RB LeipzigRB Leipzig | 9 | <1%−2 pts | 52%−10 pts | 0%±0 |
| 8 |  Werder BremenWerder Bremen | 9 | 0%±0 | 2%−1 pt | 2%+1 pt |
| 9 | HamburgHamburger SV | 9 | 0%±0 | 1%+1 pt | 7%−6 pts |
| 10 | AugsburgAugsburg | 8 | <1%±0 | 7%−1 pt | <1%±0 |
| 11 |  FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 0%±0 | 2%+1 pt | 3%−1 pt |
| 12 |  KölnFC Köln | 7 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 7%+2 pts |
| 13 | StuttgartVfB Stuttgart | 6 | <1%±0 | 23%−6 pts | <1%±0 |
| 14 | HoffenheimHoffenheim | 6 | 0%±0 | 4%+3 pts | 1%−2 pts |
| 15 |  SchalkeSchalke 04 | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 36%+10 pts |
| 16 | PaderbornPaderborn | 5 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 48%−9 pts |
| 17 |  Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 31%−2 pts |
| 18 |  GladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 60%+14 pts |
Chances after Matchday 6, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 5 below each.