Bundesliga title odds after Matchday 4
After the games up to 20 September 2026
Bayern lead the title race at 83%. Paderborn 3–1 Hoffenheim moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Bayern82%83%+1 pt
Down
RB Leipzig1%<1%−1 pt
Freiburg1%<1%−1 pt
Stuttgart1%<1%−1 pt
Bayern beat Union Berlin 7–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 82% to 83%. RB Leipzig lost 2–0 at Leverkusen, and their title chances fell from 1% to <1%. Bayern lead the title race at 83%.
Champions League
Up
Leverkusen42%61%+19 pts
Dortmund92%97%+5 pts
Mainz3%6%+3 pts
Down
- Stuttgart36%27%−9 pts
Hoffenheim16%7%−9 pts- RB Leipzig52%45%−7 pts
Leverkusen beat RB Leipzig 2–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 42% to 61%. Stuttgart lost 1–0 to Dortmund at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 36% to 27%.
Relegation
Up
Gladbach26%42%+16 pts
Union Berlin24%38%+14 pts
Schalke16%23%+7 pts
Down
Paderborn68%41%−27 pts
Hamburg47%35%−12 pts
Werder Bremen5%3%−2 pts
Gladbach lost 4–3 to Mainz at home, and their relegation chances rose from 26% to 42%. Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 68% to 41%.
Changes since Matchday 3, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Paderborn 3–1 Hoffenheim moved the odds the most. Paderborn beat Hoffenheim 3–1 at home, and their relegation chances fell from 68% to 41%. Hoffenheim lost 3–1 at Paderborn, and their Champions League chances fell from 16% to 7%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Bayern
- Dortmund
- Leverkusen
- RB Leipzig
- Freiburg
Show as a table
| Round | Bayern | Dortmund | Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 87% | 9% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 | 83% | 14% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 82% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 | 83% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DortmundBorussia Dortmund | 12 | 15%±0 | 97%+5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 2 | BayernBayern Munich | 10 | 83%+1 pt | >99%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 3 | FreiburgFreiburg | 10 | <1%−1 pt | 39%±0 | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  AugsburgAugsburg | 7 | 0%±0 | 10%−2 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 5 | LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen | 7 | 1%±0 | 61%+19 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 | MainzMainz 05 | 7 | <1%±0 | 6%+3 pts | 1%−1 pt |
| 7 |  ElversbergSV Elversberg | 7 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 7%+1 pt |
| 8 | Werder BremenWerder Bremen | 7 | 0%±0 | 2%+1 pt | 3%−2 pts |
| 9 | RB LeipzigRB Leipzig | 6 | <1%−1 pt | 45%−7 pts | <1%±0 |
| 10 |  FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt | 5 | <1%±0 | 4%−1 pt | 1%±0 |
| 11 | SchalkeSchalke 04 | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 23%+7 pts |
| 12 | PaderbornPaderborn | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 41%−27 pts |
| 13 |  KölnFC Köln | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 8%+4 pts |
| 14 | HoffenheimHoffenheim | 3 | <1%±0 | 7%−9 pts | 1%+1 pt |
| 15 | StuttgartVfB Stuttgart | 3 | <1%−1 pt | 27%−9 pts | <1%±0 |
| 16 | HamburgHamburger SV | 3 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 35%−12 pts |
| 17 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 38%+14 pts |
| 18 | GladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 42%+16 pts |
Chances after Matchday 4, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 3 below each.