Bundesliga title odds after Matchday 3
After the games up to 13 September 2026
Bayern lead the title race at 82%. Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Dortmund beat Paderborn 3–0 at home, and their title chances rose from 14% to 15%. Bayern won 2–1 at Elversberg, and their title chances fell from 83% to 82%. Bayern lead the title race at 82%.
Champions League
Up
Freiburg21%39%+18 pts
RB Leipzig37%52%+15 pts
Hoffenheim13%16%+3 pts
Down
Stuttgart52%36%−16 pts
Mainz14%3%−11 pts
Leverkusen48%42%−6 pts
Freiburg beat Gladbach 5–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 21% to 39%. Stuttgart lost 2–1 at Hoffenheim, and their Champions League chances fell from 52% to 36%.
Relegation
Up
Hamburg32%47%+15 pts
Union Berlin13%24%+11 pts
Gladbach16%26%+10 pts
Down
Schalke51%16%−35 pts
Werder Bremen9%5%−4 pts
Frankfurt5%1%−4 pts
Hamburg lost 5–0 at RB Leipzig, and their relegation chances rose from 32% to 47%. Schalke won 3–1 at Union Berlin, and their relegation chances fell from 51% to 16%.
Changes since Matchday 2, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke moved the odds the most. Union Berlin lost 3–1 to Schalke at home, and their relegation chances rose from 13% to 24%. Schalke won 3–1 at Union Berlin, and their relegation chances fell from 51% to 16%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Bayern
- Dortmund
- RB Leipzig
- Leverkusen
- Freiburg
Show as a table
| Round | Bayern | Dortmund | RB Leipzig | Leverkusen | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 87% | 9% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| 2 | 83% | 14% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 82% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FreiburgFreiburg | 9 | 1%+1 pt | 39%+18 pts | <1%±0 |
| 2 |  DortmundBorussia Dortmund | 9 | 15%+1 pt | 92%+1 pt | 0%±0 |
| 3 |  AugsburgAugsburg | 7 | <1%±0 | 12%−4 pts | <1%±0 |
| 4 |  BayernBayern Munich | 7 | 82%−1 pt | >99%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 5 | RB LeipzigRB Leipzig | 6 | 1%±0 | 52%+15 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 |  ElversbergSV Elversberg | 6 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 6%−1 pt |
| 7 | LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen | 4 | 1%±0 | 42%−6 pts | <1%±0 |
| 8 | MainzMainz 05 | 4 | 0%±0 | 3%−11 pts | 2%+2 pts |
| 9 | FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt | 4 | <1%±0 | 5%+3 pts | 1%−4 pts |
| 10 | Werder BremenWerder Bremen | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 5%−4 pts |
| 11 | SchalkeSchalke 04 | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 16%−35 pts |
| 12 |  KölnFC Köln | 4 | 0%±0 | 1%−2 pts | 4%±0 |
| 13 | HoffenheimHoffenheim | 3 | <1%±0 | 16%+3 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 14 | StuttgartVfB Stuttgart | 3 | 1%±0 | 36%−16 pts | <1%±0 |
| 15 |  PaderbornPaderborn | 1 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 68%+6 pts |
| 16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 1 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 24%+11 pts |
| 17 | GladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 26%+10 pts |
| 18 | HamburgHamburger SV | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 47%+15 pts |
Chances after Matchday 3, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 2 below each.