Bundesliga title odds after Matchday 5
After the games up to 11 October 2026
Bayern lead the title race at 85%. Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburg moved the odds the most.
Biggest risers and fallers
Title
Up
Bayern83%85%+2 pts
RB Leipzig<1%2%+2 pts
Leverkusen1%2%+1 pt
Down
Dortmund15%11%−4 pts
Bayern drew 2–2 at Augsburg, and their title chances rose from 83% to 85%. Dortmund drew 2–2 with Werder Bremen at home, and their title chances fell from 15% to 11%. Bayern lead the title race at 85%.
Champions League
Up
- RB Leipzig45%62%+17 pts
- Leverkusen61%67%+6 pts
Stuttgart27%29%+2 pts
Down
Hoffenheim7%1%−6 pts- Dortmund97%92%−5 pts
Freiburg39%35%−4 pts
RB Leipzig beat Frankfurt 6–0 at home, and their Champions League chances rose from 45% to 62%. Hoffenheim lost 3–2 to Hamburg at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 7% to 1%.
Relegation
Down
Hamburg35%13%−22 pts
Union Berlin38%33%−5 pts
Köln8%5%−3 pts
Paderborn lost 2–0 to Stuttgart at home, and their relegation chances rose from 41% to 57%. Hamburg won 3–2 at Hoffenheim, and their relegation chances fell from 35% to 13%.
Changes since Matchday 4, in points of percentage.
Result of the round
Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburg moved the odds the most. Hoffenheim lost 3–2 to Hamburg at home, and their Champions League chances fell from 7% to 1%. Hamburg won 3–2 at Hoffenheim, and their relegation chances fell from 35% to 13%.
Match previewThe game whose two clubs' chances changed the most since the last round.
The title race
- Bayern
- Dortmund
- Leverkusen
- RB Leipzig
- Freiburg
Show as a table
| Round | Bayern | Dortmund | Leverkusen | RB Leipzig | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 87% | 9% | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| 2 | 83% | 14% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 | 82% | 15% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 | 83% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 85% | 11% | 2% | 2% | <1% |
The top five clubs' title chances after each round.
Every club's chances
| # | Club | Pts | TitleTitle | Champions LeagueChampions League | RelegationRelegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FreiburgFreiburg | 13 | <1%±0 | 35%−4 pts | <1%±0 |
| 2 | DortmundBorussia Dortmund | 13 | 11%−4 pts | 92%−5 pts | 0%±0 |
| 3 | BayernBayern Munich | 11 | 85%+2 pts | >99%±0 | 0%±0 |
| 4 | LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen | 10 | 2%+1 pt | 67%+6 pts | 0%±0 |
| 5 | RB LeipzigRB Leipzig | 9 | 2%+2 pts | 62%+17 pts | 0%±0 |
| 6 |  AugsburgAugsburg | 8 | <1%±0 | 8%−2 pts | <1%−1 pt |
| 7 |  Werder BremenWerder Bremen | 8 | 0%±0 | 3%+1 pt | 1%−2 pts |
| 8 |  MainzMainz 05 | 7 | 0%±0 | 2%−4 pts | 2%+1 pt |
| 9 |  ElversbergSV Elversberg | 7 | 0%±0 | <1%−1 pt | 10%+3 pts |
| 10 | KölnFC Köln | 7 | 0%±0 | 1%±0 | 5%−3 pts |
| 11 | StuttgartVfB Stuttgart | 6 | <1%±0 | 29%+2 pts | <1%±0 |
| 12 | HamburgHamburger SV | 6 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 13%−22 pts |
| 13 |  SchalkeSchalke 04 | 5 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 26%+3 pts |
| 14 |  FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 0%±0 | 1%−3 pts | 4%+3 pts |
| 15 |  PaderbornPaderborn | 4 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 57%+16 pts |
| 16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 4 | 0%±0 | <1%±0 | 33%−5 pts |
| 17 | HoffenheimHoffenheim | 3 | 0%±0 | 1%−6 pts | 3%+2 pts |
| 18 |  GladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0%±0 | 0%±0 | 46%+4 pts |
Chances after Matchday 5, from 10,000 simulated seasons; the change since Matchday 4 below each.